考虑热力学机制的台风强度与极值风速分析

Analysis of typhoon intensity and extreme wind speeds considering thermodynamic mechanisms

关键词:  台风  强度模型  偏态分布  重现期  极值风速

Key words:  typhoon  intensity model  skewed distribution  recurrence period  extreme wind

摘要:

为了校正已有的确定性台风强度模型并考虑随机性的影响,在确定性台风强度的常微分方程中引入了包括均值和随机噪声的修正项,并采用多种偏态分布模型作为随机噪声的候选概率分布。利用西北太平洋地区的历史台风数据,采用地理加权方法估计了修正项的地理变化均值、标准差、偏度和超值峰度。进一步采用矩估计方法识别了修正项中随机噪声候选概率分布模型的参数,并基于KS距离确定了最优概率分布模型。通过对比分析历史台风强度演化过程的模拟结果,研究了误差项的均值部分和随机部分对模型性能的影响。结果表明,修正项的引入显著改进了模型对历史台风强度的模拟能力,增强了模型对台风强度随机性的反映能力,验证了该模型在台风极值风速分析中的有效性。

Abstract:

To adjust existing deterministic typhoon intensity models and account for stochastic influences, a correction term containing both mean and random noise is introduced into the ordinary differential equations governing deterministic typhoon intensity. Various skewed distribution models serve as candidate probability distributions for the random noise. Using historical typhoon data from the Northwest Pacific, the geographically weighted method estimates geographic variation in mean, standard deviation, skewness, and excess kurtosis of the correction term. Furthermore, the method of moments estimates parameters for candidate probability distribution models of the random noise within the correction term, with the optimal probability distribution model determined by KS distance. By comparing simulated results of historical typhoon intensity evolution, the impact of both mean and stochastic components of the error term on model performance is examined. The results indicate that introducing the correction term significantly improves the model′s ability to simulate historical typhoon intensities and enhances its capacity to capture the stochastic nature of typhoon intensity. Additionally, this paper validates model effectiveness in extreme wind speed analysis of typhoons.