考虑后悔的需求响应公交选择行为模型

Travel choice model for demand responsive transit considering regret

关键词:  地面公交  DRT  出行选择行为  后悔最小化  混合效用

Key words:  transit  DRT  travel choice behavior  regret minimization  hybrid utility

摘要:

准确把握出行者选择偏好,有助于构建需求响应公交（demand responsive transit,DRT）可持续运营策略,为此,结合DRT服务在中国缺乏成熟实践且社会公众尚未完全熟知现状,关注了出行者在面对复杂不确定出行场景时易存在的损失规避心理,引入社会经济属性、出行特征属性、方式属性等构建了基于混合效用与后悔的DRT选择行为模型,并以北京市15 012条样本数据进行了模型标定及验证分析。结果表明:60岁及以上的出行者群体对DRT服务具有最为显著的选择意愿；女性、年龄在25岁及以上、本专科教育水平及以上、月均可支配收入在1 000元及以上、具有2人及以上家庭等因素均对选择DRT服务具有积极影响。为充分发挥DRT服务对于绿色出行的促进作用,建议10 km以内出行距离下票价不应超过10元,且车辆绕行时间不宜超过总出行时间的1/4。

Abstract:

It is essential to accurately capture traveler preferences for developing sustainable operating strategies with demand-responsive transit (DRT) services. Considering the unmatured practice of DRT and limited public awareness in China, the loss aversion psychology exhibited by travelers when faced with complex and uncertain travel scenarios is focused. Integrating socioeconomic attributes, travel characteristics, and modal attributes, a mode choice model based on the hybrid utility and regret model is developed and calibrated through a dataset comprising 15 012 observations from Beijing. The results indicate travelers aged 60 and above show the most pronounced preference towards adopting the DRT. Factors such as female, age 25 and above, educational attainment at the associate degree level or higher, monthly disposable income exceeding 1 000 yuan, and household sizes of two or more individuals have a positive influence on the adoption of the DRT. Furthermore, under the travel distance within 10 kilometers, the fare for DRT is suggested to not exceed 10 yuan, and the vehicular detour time is suggested to be limited within one-fourth of the total travel time to fully utilize DRT′s potential in augmenting the modal share of sustainable transportation.