Residual life prediction of electrical connector based on combination model

Abstract:

In order to predict the remaining life of electrical connector, this paper proposes a life prediction method for the electrical connector based on a combination model of an adaptive Wiener and a discrete grey model (DGM(1,1)). First, based on the Arrhenius model, the stress level of the temperature cycle test is selected to determine experimental parameters such as test cycle, exposure time, and temperature rise rate, and contact resistance is chosen as the degradation characteristic quantity for the temperature cycle test. Second, the remaining life of the electrical connector under temperature cycles is predicted using both the adaptive Wiener model and the DGM(1,1) model seperately. By comparing the pseudo-life prediction results of the two models under different temperature stresses are compared, a combined model of the adaptive Wiener and DGM(1,1) is proposed. Finally, the parameters in the Arrhenius model are estimated by the least squares method, and the life of the electrical connector under normal temperature is extrapolated. The results show that the DGM(1,1) model provides more accurate predictions under lower temperature stresses, while the adaptive Wiener model provides more accurate predictions under higher temperature stresses. Considering the applicability of the model under different temperature stresses comprehensively, the combined model of adaptive Wiener and DGM (1,1) can predict the remaining life of electrical connectors more accurately. The research results can provide reference for maintenance decisions of electrical connectors and support for the reliability improvement of electrical equipment.