Abstract:To get the fault tree analysis of ETC36 CNC lathe feed system under the condition of lack of actual failure data and reliability test data, and improve the reliability of ETC36 CNC lathe feed system, an expert language evaluation method is adopted to obtain the fuzzy probability of bottom events. Based on fuzzy theory, the fault tree is established and the qualitative analysis is carried out. Various failure modes of ETC36 CNC lathe feeding system are gotton. On the basis of using expert language evaluation method, a quantitative analysis of the fault tree is made and the fuzzy probability of top event is obtained. When compared the fuzzy probability of top event with the actual probability, the corresponding confidence level 0.70 is gotton that verifies the feasibility of language experts evaluation method and the correctness of the fault tree. The fuzzy importance degree of each bottom event is calculated, and the weak links of ETC36 CNC lathe feed system is overcome. To a certain extent, the fault tree analysis of ETC36 CNC lathe feed system under the serious lack of failure probability information is finished.