城市群旅客协同运输线路边际效益分析及优选

Marginal benefit analysis and optimization selection of passenger collaborative transportation routes in urban agglomeration

摘要:

为适应城市群旅客出行需求并实现系统整体效益的最大化,提出基于边际效益理论的城市群协同范围及协同线路优化选择问题。基于超网络理论构建城市群多方式交通系统的超网络模型,考虑客流关联强度和换乘设施等因素生成协同线路备选集；将超网络的路径分为在乘段与换乘段,提出多方式出行路径的广义出行费用计算方法；利用3层巢式Logit模型构建旅客城市群出行路径选择行为。在此基础上,提出以系统效益最大化为优化目标的双层规划模型,采用遗传算法和相继平均法求解上下层模型,并基于边际效益递减理论确定协同运输范围及协同线路。最后以京津冀城市群为例对模型构建的合理性进行验证并应用于问题分析。结果表明:协同运输线路的规模存在边际效益且优选出的协同线路能够基本满足京津冀城市群旅客出行需求,以线路为导向的多方式联运模式拓展了联程运输模式,为城市群多模式协同运输的实施提供了途径。

Abstract:

To adapt to the travel needs of urban agglomeration passengers and maximize the overall benefits of the system, a problem of collaborative range and collaborative route optimization selection of urban agglomerations was proposed based on the marginal benefit theory. A super network model of multi-mode and multi-link traffic system in urban agglomerations was constructed, and factors such as the correlation strength of passenger flow and transfer facilities were considered to generate a collaborative route candidate set. The routes of the super network were divided into on-going sections and transfer sections, and the generalized travel cost of the multi-mode travel routes was established. The route choice behaviors of passengers in urban agglomerations were constructed by using three-tier nested Logit model. On this basis, a bi-level programming model was established with the optimization objective of maximizing social welfare. Genetic algorithm and successive averaging method were used to solve the upper and lower models and the collaborative transportation range and collaborative routes were determined based on the theory of diminishing marginal benefits. Finally, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration was taken as an example to illustrate the performance and application of the model. Results show that there was marginal benefit in the scale of collaborative transportation routes, and the optimized collaborative routes could basically meet the travel demand of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration. It provides reference and theoretical guidance for the implementation of collaborative operation of multi-mode transport in urban agglomerations in China.