高速铁路动态定价的稳健优化模型

Robust optimization model of dynamic pricing for high-speed railway

摘要:

针对目前高速铁路票价单一，不能用来调节客流、提高收益的问题，在分析高速铁路不同售票时段旅客对价格敏感性的基础上，基于收益管理理论，结合高速铁路运输组织特点，以收益最大化为目标，构建高速铁路分时段动态定价稳健模型，并针对需求函数系数的不确定性，运用稳健优化方法对模型求解.以京沪高铁列车为对象进行案例分析，并与单一全价票下的票额分配方案进行对比，最后通过仿真模拟验证了模型的稳健性.结果表明：考虑收益管理的动态定价稳健模型能够通过动态调整价格来调节不同售票时段的客流需求从而提高收益；并且相比名义模型，该模型能够更好适应需求波动且能够保证将更多的车票以更高的价格销售，所构建模型为高速铁路实施动态定价策略提供优化方法.

Abstract:

Ticket price of high-speed railway in China is unitary and changeless, which cannot adjust passenger flow and improve revenue. Based on the analysis of passenger's sensitivity towards ticket price in different booking periods, a robust optimization model of multi-period dynamic pricing for high-speed railway was developed aiming to maximize the revenue on the basis of revenue management theory and the transportation organization characteristics of high-speed railway. Considering the uncertainty of demand function, the model was solved with a robust optimization method. Beijing-Shanghai high-speed train was taken as an example to test the effectiveness of the model. The results showed that compared with the seat allocation scheme under the unitary ticket fare, the proposed model can dynamically adjust ticket fare to regulate the passenger flow in different booking periods and improve revenue. In addition, the robustness of the model was verified by the simulation test. Compared with the nominal model, the proposed model can better adapt to the fluctuation of the demand and ensure that more tickets are sold at a higher price. The proposed model provides an optimization method for dynamic pricing of high-speed railway.