基于正交极差分析的青龙河流域HSPF模型参数寻优模式

Orthogonal range analysis-based HSPF parameter optimization pattern for Qinglong River watershed

摘要:

为评价桃林口水库水文水质状况, 建立其上游青龙河流域的BASINs/HSPF水文水质模拟模型.以Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数作为评价标准, 联合正交设计和极差分析法进行参数寻优研究和可靠性分析.结果表明：BASINs/HSPF模型参数寻优的正交极差联合分析模式可大幅减小参数的寻优次数和寻优区间, 是获得模型灵敏度参数和参数满意解的高效模式, 可为模型参数寻优算法开发提供借鉴; 应用正交极差分析的参数率定结果, 以青龙河流域下游桃林口水库监测点2011年实测径流数据对模型进行验证, 验证期(2011年)的Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数为0.79, 稍低于率定期(2012年)的Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数(0.81)以及PEST自动校准的Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数(0.84), 水质模拟结果也基本吻合; 针对青龙河流域BASINs/HSPF模型, 应用正交极差分析方法识别出6个高灵敏的BASINs/HSPF模型参数(IRC、INFILT、AGWRC、DEEPFR、AGWETP和LZSN); 应用正交极差分析方法获得的BASINs/HSPF模型参数满意解取值区间依次为：LZSN[2.0, 6.3], INFILT[0.084, 0.167], AGWRC[0.90, 0.95], DEEPFR[0.209, 0.333], BASETP[0.067, 0.199], AGWETP[0.067, 0.199], CEPSC[0.14, 0.27], UZSN[1.35, 2.00], IRC[0.392, 0.483].

Abstract:

In order to evaluate hydrological and water quality situation of Taolinkou reservoir, BASINs/HSPF model of the upstream Qinglong River watershed is developed to conduct the hydrological and water quality simulation. The efficacy, efficiency and reliability of the orthogonal range analysis pattern for parameter optimization is assessed by Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient and different comparisons, and the following conclusions are obtained: the orthogonal range analysis pattern can decrease optimization efficiency and narrow parameter range for BASINs/HSPF, and can be used as a high-efficiency tool to obtain the high sensitive parameters and the satisfied parameter set. It is also useful for developing the relative parameter optimization algorithms; the measured runoff time series of the Taolinkou reservoir in 2012 and 2011 were used for calibration and verification, respectively. Based on the orthogonal range analysis, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient is up to 0.79 for verification, lower than that of calibration (0.81) and PEST automatic calibration(0.84);six relatively sensitive parameters (IRC, INFILT, AGWRC, DEEPFR, AGWETP and LZSN) are identified based on range analysis for BASINs/HSPF of Qinglong river watershed; ranges of the satisfied BASINs/HSPF parameter set by orthogonal range analysis method are as follows: [2.0, 6.3](LZSN), [0.084, 0.167](INFILT), [0.90, 0.95](AGWRC), [0.209, 0.333](DEEPFR); [0.067, 0.199](BASETP), [0.067, 0.199](AGWETP), [0.14, 0.27](CEPSC), [1.35, 2.00](UZSN), [0.392, 0.483](IRC).