基于响应时间效应的突发水污染应急决策分析

Decision analysis for sudden water pollution based on emergency response time effect

摘要:

近期, 中国频发的突发水污染事件及其造成的重大环境和经济损害, 在很大程度上是由于相关责任人对污染危害程度及其发展趋势认识严重不足、应急准备缺失和处置响应迟滞造成的.为此, 从污染物在水中的扩散规律及环境经济危害与污染控制费用的动态发展趋势角度出发, 构建以响应时间为决策变量, 以应急处置费用最小化为目标函数, 以水质达标和物资准备时间为约束条件的突发水污染应急处置决策模型, 采用情景分析的方法, 将物资获取、运输、装卸与装配等的时间因素对目标函数的影响进行量化分析, 揭示应急物资准备工作的各个环节的实施时间、污染现场条件对应急处置费用的影响程度.在假定的典型情景中, 突发水污染应急响应延误1 h, 应急处置费用会增加约163万元.研究结果不仅能为污染事件相关责任人清晰地展示事故应急响应延误的严重后果, 还可为决策者在应急处置战略点选择、应急处置技术方案选择以及应急物资储备库构建方面提供量化的信息支持.

Abstract:

The frequent accidental water pollutions in China have brought serious environmental pollution and economic losses. These accidents were largely caused by the relevant personnel's serious lack of the recognition of damages and trends of sudden pollutions, inadequate emergency preparation and delayed emergency response. According to the law of pollutants diffusion in water and dynamic development tendency of ecological damages and pollution-control cost, the study established the decision-making model which chose the emergency response time as the decision variable. The objective function of the model was the total cost of emergency treatment. The study chose water standard and emergency supplies preparedness time as constraint conditions and quantitatively evaluated the effect of the time for procuring, loading, transporting, unloading and assembling emergency supplies on the object function by the scenario analysis method. The model revealed the influence degree of the emergency supplies preparedness time and field conditions on the total cost of emergency treatment. The emergency pollution-control cost will increase by about 1.63 million RMB when the emergency response was delayed by 1 hour in the hypothetical typical sudden water pollution. The research results not only showed serious consequences caused by the delayed emergency response but also provided decision-makers with quantitative information support in the aspects of selecting strategic points and technical programs of emergency treatment and establishing the emergency supplies depository.