应用台风风场经验模型的台风极值风速预测

Prediction typhoon design wind speed with empirical typhoon wind field model

摘要:

为准确、高效地进行台风多发地区建筑结构设计风速的预测，利用中国东南沿海1949—2012年的台风历史数据进行了香港地区台风关键参数概率分布的研究，提出了基于新的Holland径向气压分布参数B表达式的台风风场经验模型.在此基础上结合Monte Carlo数值模拟技术，利用台风极值风速分析方法完成了不同重现期下香港地区台风极值风速的预测，并与观测数据、香港风荷载规范计算结果进行对比分析，验证了利用此台风风场经验模型进行台风极值风速预测的有效性.

Abstract:

To predict typhoon design wind speed of buildings in typhoon prone region more efficiently and accurately, probability distributions of typhoon key parameters are first fitted by using the historical typhoon wind data during 1949 and 2012 in southeast china costal region. Then, the empirical typhoon wind field model with new formula for Holland radial pressure profile parameter B is presented. Finally, in conjunction with Monte Carlo simulation method, by using typhoon extreme wind speed analysis method, typhoon extreme wind speeds with different return periods for Hong Kong are obtained. The simulation results are compared with these results obtained by using observed data and Hong Kong wind code. The effectiveness of predicting typhoon extreme wind speed by using this empirical typhoon wind field model is validated.