有限理性下出行者方式选择行为

Traveler’s mode choice behavior analysis under bounded rational

摘要:

为分析有限理性下出行者的方式选择行为,将前景理论引入方式选择决策中,分析不同时间价值出行者在私家车、公交车和出租车3种方式下的主观感知费用,并研究出行者在广义出行费用下、出行时间概率分布变化下和时间约束3种情景下的方式选择行为．通过算例对比前景理论与期望效用理论对出行者方式选择行为描述的异同,发现前景理论更依赖于决策权重函数的变化;而在出行时间概率变化和时间约束下,有车一族倾向于优先选择私家车出行．在不确定环境下,前景理论更适用于分析居民出行方式选择行为的变化．

Abstract:

Aiming to analyze traveler’s mode choice behavior under bounder rational, this paper introduced the prospect theory in the mode choice decision-making. First, the subjective perception cost of travelers with different time value on the three different transport modes, private car, bus and taxi, was analyzed, and the traveler’s mode choice behavior was discussed under the traveler’s generalized travel cost, the probability distribution of travel time changing and travel time constraints, respectively. Comparing the difference of numerical examples between prospect theory and expected utility theory, it indicated that the prospect theory is more dependent on the weighting function changes; and under the travel time probability changes and the time constraints, the car owners tend to choose private cars. The prospect theory is more applicable to analyze traveler’s mode choice behavior under the uncertain environments.