巢湖叶绿素a与环境因子耦合效应的多元分析

Multivariate analysis between chlorophyll-a and coupling of environmental factors in Chaohu Lake

摘要:

针对巢湖西半湖富营养化情况,利用实测资料,通过相关分析和多元逐步回归统计,分析环境多元耦合效应与水体叶绿素a质量浓度之间的关系,找出显著环境因子,建立多元逐步回归方程,预测叶绿素a质量浓度变化．结果表明,巢湖西半湖叶绿素a质量浓度夏季高冬季低,其变化受多个环境因子共同影响,相关性较显著的为气温、水位、COD_Mn等．在各环境因子间的多元耦合效应下,水文气象因子对水华的驱动作用较强．研究结果可为巢湖水华控制预报工作提供科学依据．

Abstract:

Based on the eutrophication appeared in Chaohu Lake, we analyzed the relation between the multifactor coupling and chlorophyll-a (Chla) with monitor data from 2005 to 2009 in western lake, and by correlation analysis and stepwise multiple regression, we inferred the dominant factors of algal blooms and established the prediction model of Chla variation. The results indicated that seasonal trend of Chla concentration was greater in summer and lower in winter in western lake. The Chla biomass was influenced by multiple effects of environmental factors, in which the dominant ones were air temperature, water level and COD_Mn. Under multifactor coupling environment, meteorologic and hydrologic factors were most significant to algal blooms. These results might provide scientific foundations for prediction and control of harmful algal blooms in Chaohu Lake.