电子执法对信号交叉口交通违法与交通事故的影响

Analysis of impact of automated enforcement on traffic violation and traffic accident at signalized intersection

摘要:

为改进我国现有电子执法成效评估的对比分析方法存在的缺陷,在考虑均值回归与交通管理水平提升等影响因素后,借助概率论中的误差分析法,提出电子执法对交通事故影响的综合分析法.研究表明,我国道路电子执法对交通事故的影响要大于国外发达国家,电子执法在降低我国道路交通事故方面效果更显著,但我国电子执法在运行过程中会明显增加刮撞行人的交通事故并加剧交通事故的严重程度,导致死伤人数的比例大幅上升,与国外发达国家电子执法实施后仅增加了追尾事故的数量有较明显区别.综合分析法克服了对比分析法高估或低估电子执法对交通违法和交通事故影响的缺陷,评价结果客观,有利于推进电子执法设施应用的范围和深度.

Abstract:

In order to improve the defects of contrast analysis method on automated enforcement effectiveness evaluation in china,in consideration of the influence factors of regression to the mean and traffic management level,a new comprehensive analysis method is given by means of error analysis method in probability theory.It shows that crash effects in our country is greater than that in developed one as a result of automated enforcement,that is,the effects of reducing traffic accidents flowing automated enforcement in China is greater.However,in China,automated enforcement will increase pedestrian hit and the severity of the crash,as well as lead to significant increase the proportion of casualties,which is more obviously different from that in developed country(it only increases the number of rear-end crashes following automated enforcement).The comprehensive analysis method overcomes the defects that contrast analysis method overestimate or underestimate the impacts of automated enforcement in the traffic violations and accidents,it is helpful to promote the application scope and depth of automated enforcement.